Looks like Apollo is calling a recession for Summer 2025. The Trump crew is already trying to blame Biden, but that's 100% horseshit. From what I gather this is unlikely to be reversible so brace yourself in whichever ways you can. There are suggestions this one may be worse than 2008.<br><br><a href="https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf" rel="nofollow" class="ellipsis" title="www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">www.apolloacademy.com/wp-conte</span><span class="invisible">nt/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf</span></a> (see page 4 for a summary of the timeline + expectation)<br><br><a href="/tags/uspol/" rel="tag">#USPol</a> <a href="/tags/useconomy/" rel="tag">#USEconomy</a> <a href="/tags/recession/" rel="tag">#recession</a> <a href="/tags/greatrecession/" rel="tag">#GreatRecession</a><br>
useconomy
Just a reminder that Google is an illegal monopolist, having lost three distinct antitrust cases.<br><br>It looks likely that Google will be treated the way Microsoft was in their famous antitrust loss in the late 1990s, and not be broken up in any significant way. Google absolutely should be broken up, just like AT&T and Standard Oil (and countless other large US monopolists) were before it. Google's wealth and power derives from illegal behavior; this is not in question anymore. Why should they be permitted to keep what courts have decided they stole? 100 years of antitrust law and precedent says that it should not be permitted to keep the spoils of its illegal behavior.<br><br>It sounds to me like the hesitation to break up Google is largely ideological on the part of the judges and lawyers involved. The failure to break up Microsoft after its antitrust loss is arguably one of the main reasons the US economy is such a monopolized, consolidated mess today, and why so many things are "enshittifying". Breaking up Google and changing that pattern would obviously not cure all ills, but it'd almost surely make a number of things in the economy better for a whole lot of people.<br><br>In any case, one thing we can all do is look at Google as a bad actor, a law-breaking entity whose power is illegitimate.<br><br><a href="https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/why-is-google-still-in-one-piece" rel="nofollow" class="ellipsis" title="www.thebignewsletter.com/p/why-is-google-still-in-one-piece"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">www.thebignewsletter.com/p/why</span><span class="invisible">-is-google-still-in-one-piece</span></a><br><br><a href="/tags/google/" rel="tag">#Google</a> <a href="/tags/microsoft/" rel="tag">#Microsoft</a> <a href="/tags/antitrust/" rel="tag">#antitrust</a> <a href="/tags/monopoly/" rel="tag">#monopoly</a> <a href="/tags/useconomy/" rel="tag">#USEconomy</a> <a href="/tags/neoliberalism/" rel="tag">#neoliberalism</a><br>
<p>Since “there is…no appetite in Washington to tackle the ($36 trillion) debt,” the wealthy are tying themselves in knots to figure out—</p><p>get this—</p><p>Not how to get out of debt (per se) but how to shift the debt inward— </p><p>/1 of 4 🧵<br><a href="/tags/usa/" rel="tag">#USA</a> <a href="/tags/useconomy/" rel="tag">#USEconomy</a> <a href="/tags/economics/" rel="tag">#economics</a> <a href="/tags/usdebt/" rel="tag">#USdebt</a> </p><p>“Forget the Mar-a-Lago Accord” —<br>To help the US get out of its “explosive debt,” a Deutsche Bank strategist introduces the ‘Pennsylvania plan’</p><p><a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-new-plan-might-be-taking-shape-in-washington-to-help-manage-explosive-u-s-debt-d4f4a309" rel="nofollow" class="ellipsis" title="www.marketwatch.com/story/a-new-plan-might-be-taking-shape-in-washington-to-help-manage-explosive-u-s-debt-d4f4a309"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">www.marketwatch.com/story/a-ne</span><span class="invisible">w-plan-might-be-taking-shape-in-washington-to-help-manage-explosive-u-s-debt-d4f4a309</span></a></p>
I think it's wild that cryptocurrencies are also crashing along with the US stock market. I mean, I feel like they're doomed to crash generally but there legitimately seemed to be enthusiasm in that industry that Trump would make the line go up.<br><br><a href="/tags/trumprecession/" rel="tag">#TrumpRecession</a> <a href="/tags/trumpcrash/" rel="tag">#TrumpCrash</a> <a href="/tags/crypto/" rel="tag">#crypto</a> <a href="/tags/cryptocurrency/" rel="tag">#cryptocurrency</a> <a href="/tags/bitcoin/" rel="tag">#bitcoin</a> <a href="/tags/useconomy/" rel="tag">#USEconomy</a> <a href="/tags/uspol/" rel="tag">#USPol</a><br>
I hope there are journalists digging into who sold and who bought stocks and cryptocurrencies, which ones and when, leading up to Apr 2 and in the next few weeks.<br><br>The low-effort generative AI looking tariff rates is a tell. The fact bitcoin moved the same way as US stock indices has a bad smell about it too.<br><br><a href="/tags/trumpanddump/" rel="tag">#TrumpAndDump</a> <a href="/tags/pumpanddump/" rel="tag">#PumpAndDump</a> <a href="/tags/tariff/" rel="tag">#tariff</a> <a href="/tags/uspol/" rel="tag">#USPol</a> <a href="/tags/useconomy/" rel="tag">#USEconomy</a> <a href="/tags/con/" rel="tag">#con</a><br>
Edited 361d ago
In all the talk of US trade deficits forcing Trump et al. to erect tariff barriers to "rebalance trade", we've lost or ignored the fact that the US has an enormous digital trade surplus. See, for instance, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-49141-z" rel="nofollow">this paper</a> Estimating digital product trade through corporate revenue data. The US's main conventional export is currently petroleum, but it exports over twice as much in digital advertising. The US's overall "digital exports" are larger than the total exports of France, which is the world's 7th leading exporter. However, these numbers are not typically included in reports about trade deficits or surpluses.<br><br><a href="/tags/trump/" rel="tag">#Trump</a> <a href="/tags/tariffs/" rel="tag">#tariffs</a> <a href="/tags/uspol/" rel="tag">#USPol</a> <a href="/tags/useconomy/" rel="tag">#USEconomy</a> <a href="/tags/globaltrade/" rel="tag">#GlobalTrade</a> <a href="/tags/trade/" rel="tag">#trade</a><br>
Edited 360d ago
<p>US Economy Flashing Warning Signs—</p><p>with the services sector showing signs of stagnation~</p><p>Services make up ~”more than 2/3 of overall US economic activity,” yet seem to get little attention from the Trump Admin, which is highly focused on the production of goods.</p><p>The data from The Institute for Supply Management coincides with the BLS’s revised jobs report (which <a href="/tags/trump/" rel="tag">#trump</a> fired the BLS commissioner over). </p><p>/1🧵<br><a href="/tags/usa/" rel="tag">#USA</a> <a href="/tags/useconomy/" rel="tag">#USeconomy</a> <a href="/tags/economics/" rel="tag">#economics</a><br>—</p><p>* <a href="https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2024/07/the-rise-of-services-in-the-us-economy/" rel="nofollow" class="ellipsis" title="fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2024/07/the-rise-of-services-in-the-us-economy/"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2024/0</span><span class="invisible">7/the-rise-of-services-in-the-us-economy/</span></a><br>—<br><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-05/us-service-activity-nearly-stagnates-as-employment-contracts" rel="nofollow" class="ellipsis" title="www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-05/us-service-activity-nearly-stagnates-as-employment-contracts"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">www.bloomberg.com/news/article</span><span class="invisible">s/2025-08-05/us-service-activity-nearly-stagnates-as-employment-contracts</span></a></p>
Edited 243d ago
Hot take: the AI bubble already burst, and what we're experiencing now is the bailout. "Patriotic tech" is one of the forms it's taking.<br><br>It seems to me that, as with the still ongoing COVID pandemic that very few recognize as such, the looming asset collapse and economic recession we're living through in the US is not perceived because it's not talked about as such, and therefore might as well not be happening.<br><br><a href="/tags/us/" rel="tag">#US</a> <a href="/tags/uspol/" rel="tag">#USPol</a> <a href="/tags/useconomy/" rel="tag">#USEconomy</a> <a href="/tags/ai/" rel="tag">#AI</a> <a href="/tags/bubble/" rel="tag">#bubble</a> <a href="/tags/recession/" rel="tag">#recession</a> <a href="/tags/covid/" rel="tag">#COVID</a> <a href="/tags/covidpandemic/" rel="tag">#COVIDPandemic</a><br>