From “one of the great (greatest?) contemporary popular writers on economics” (Tyler Cowen) comes a smart, lively, and encouraging rethinking of how to use statistics.
Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics—we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us.” If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter.
As “perhaps the best popular economics writer in the world” (New Statesman), Tim Harford is an expert at taking complicated ideas and untangling them for millions of readers. In The Data Detective, he uses new research in science and psychology to set out ten strategies for using statistics to erase our biases and replace them with new ideas that use virtues like patience, curiosity, and good sense to better understand ourselves and the world. As a result, The Data Detective is a big-idea book about statistics and human behavior that is fresh, unexpected, and insightful.
"[Harford] expertly guides us through the many ways in which data can trick us….Though numbers are at the core of The Data Detective, it’s emotion that wields … power, affecting not only how we respond to data but also how we absorb it in the first place." —The Wall Street Journal
"The Data Detective is sure to be another success from Harford, and is a powerful tool, especially in the current climate, one that will give readers the confidence to delve into data and statistics in a new and meaningful way." —Booklist
"One of the most wonderful collections of stories that I have read in a long time... fascinating." —Steve Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics
"Few people write about social science with the clarity and wit of Tim Harford. If you’re staggered by statistics or daunted by data, this entertaining romp of a book is essential reading.” —Daniel H. Pink, author of When and Drive
"Nobody makes the statistics of everyday life more fascinating and enjoyable than Tim Harford." —Bill Bryson, author of The Body
“Tim Harford is one of the finest writers of nonfiction. This is another brilliant read: wise, humane, and above all illuminating. Nobody is better on statistics and numbers – and how to make sense of them.” —Matthew Syed, author of Rebel Ideas
“An immensely enjoyable guide to using statistics. I loved it.” —Matt Parker, author of Humble Pi
“We are supremely lucky to have the fabulously readable, lucid, witty, and authoritative Tim Harford to remind us why fact, reason, numbers, clarity, and truth matter, how beautiful they are and how crucial to our understanding of the natural world and human society. Every politician and journalist should be made to read this book.” —Stephen Fry
"In The Data Detective, Tim Harford continues to amuse and instruct the reader with deceptively profound and broad statistical intuition and wisdom. He finds historical precedent for our modern mistakes that are delightful and enlightening and serve to make us hopeful rather than despairing about our future—a feat in itself." —Cathy O’Neil, author of Weapons of Math Destruction
"Thanks to Tim Harford's characteristic wit and magnetic storytelling, you may not realize you're getting an advanced course in how to understand the kind of statistics we're all faced with every day. The Data Detective is certainly a fun book to read, but it's also a genuinely important one." —David Epstein, author of Range
"Tim Harford is a brilliant guide to a world that we humans often find overwhelming and intimidating: the world of data. This entertaining, engrossing book about the power of numbers, logic, and genuine curiosity has, in Harford's own words, 'awakened my sense of wonder' about the beauty of statistics." —Maria Konnikova, author of The Biggest Bluff
"Characteristic lucidity, concealed intellectual depths, wry humour—and a big unifying idea—from one of our finest economic and statistical communicators" —The Independent

《科学发现纵横谈》是一本漫谈科学发现的书，篇幅虽然不算大，但作者王梓坤同志纵览古今，横观中外，从自然科学发展的历史长河中，挑选出不少有意义的发现和事实，努力用辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义的观点，加以分析总结，阐明有关科学发现的一些基本规律，并探求作为一个自然科学工作者，应该力求具备一些怎样的品质。这些内容，作者是在“四人帮”形而上学猖獗、唯心主义横行的情况下写成的，尤其难能可贵。今天，党中央率领我们进行新的长征，努力赶超世界科学作者是一位数学家，能在研讨数学的同时，写成这样的作品，同样是难能可贵的。
王梓坤院士是我国著名数学家、教育家、科普作家，曾任北京师范大学校长。本书中，他以一个科学家的眼光，结合自己的亲身经历，纵谈古今中外科学发现的一般规律和过程，横谈成功者所具备的品质——德、识、才、学。书中许多保人的思想、经验、警句和诗话，读后让人爱不释手，备受启迪。是一本名副其实的励志名作。

生活成本为何居高不下？
费雪在本书提出著名的交易方程式，揭示了决定物价的三大因素，用于分析当下政策、事件对物价的影响。
本书还探讨了货币的本质及价值支撑，破除了对货币的误解；用资产负债表逐步展示银行信用不断扩张的过程；以辩论方式论证历史上复本位制究竟能否让币值稳定；并用交易方程式推演物价变动如何触发经济周期，并提出措施降低经济危机的次数和后果；最后对导致“生活成本高昂”的近30种流行说法一一驳斥，并说明持有这些错误信念的后果。

觉得生活成本越来越高，工资涨了还是不够用？这说明你出现了货币幻觉。货币幻觉是人的一种心理错觉，即决策时只看到货币的名义价值，而忽视了实际购买力的变化。
费雪列举了大量存在货币幻觉的生动例子，并认为这种错觉源于货币单位的不稳定——即货币购买力的波动。他继而分析波动的原因和对不同行业不同阶层的危害，分别站在个人、银行和政府的角度提出补救办法。比如用指数衡量货币购买力，并根据指数调整工资等；或直接用指数创造商品本位，取代当时的金本位。
本书能加深人们对货币的认识，更重要的是，能帮助个人在生活、投资决策时少受货币幻觉的影响。
*名家推荐
费雪一生扮演过许多角色——社会哲学家、经济工程师、教师、发明家、商人，还有他坚信在很多方面对人类福祉至关重要的改革活动家，但不管是哪个角色，我斗胆预测，他会作为这个国家最伟大的科学经济学家载入史册。
——熊彼特
本书活泼、清晰，又有趣，延续了费雪教授一贯的写作特点。而教授正是用这样的写法，令经济学的门外汉不仅能够理解货币幻觉，还让他们准备好为破除幻觉出一份力。
——沃伦·伦道夫·伯吉斯
前纽约花旗银行董事长，美国银行家协会前会长
纯从可用的理论衡量费雪的贡献，二十世纪的经济学家无出其右。费雪是经济学中的莫扎特。无论是功用分析、指数分析、货币理论、利息理论，此君皆立竿见影。他平生论著无数，皆天才之作也。
——张五常
从经济分析的贡献来看，欧文·费雪是美国经济学历史上最伟大的一个名字。
——萨缪尔森
在我看来，费雪是到目前为止美国最伟大的经济学家。
——弗里德曼

想象力、社交能力、幽默、自发性、惊奇，
弗吉尼亚大学医学博士的心态重塑指南
用5种快乐特质打败生活的挫折与乏味
◎ 编辑推荐
☆ 我们缺的不一定是玩耍和娱乐的时间，而是轻松生活所不可或缺的顽皮特质
对很多成年人来说，严肃和充满压力的生活并非源于没有时间玩耍和娱乐，而在 于他们内心的顽皮特质被侵蚀掉了。玩耍和娱乐只是一种行为，而顽皮是对待行为的一种态度。玩耍的行为很容易达成，但启动我们性格中的顽皮特质却需要有意识的思考和努力。
☆ 弗吉尼亚大学医学博士的心态重塑指南，用5种顽皮特质打败生活的挫折与乏味
本书作者拥有杜克大学普拉特工程学院生物医学工程学士学位，密歇根大学拉克姆研究生院健康和卫生保健研究硕士学位，以及弗吉尼亚大学医学院医学博士学位。在书中，作者介绍了想象力、社交能力、幽默、自发性、惊奇5种顽皮特质，帮助我们对抗压力、严肃和超负荷这些成年人的主要困扰。
☆ 本书内容精彩而实用，提醒读者去笑、去做白日梦、去活在当下、去爱
本书融合了心理学、社会学、神经科学等一系列学科的知识，充满了令人信服的研究、激励人心的故事和切实可行的步骤，既可以拓展读者的见识，又能让读者从真实的故事中感受“顽皮”的积极力量，从身心健康、人际关系到面对困境等诸多方面受益，并轻松学会如何以一种孩童般的视角看待生活，快乐生活。
◎ 内容简介
成年之后的压力和忙碌让很多人被疲惫感和麻木感包围，生活渐渐失去色彩，甚至怀疑自己是否陷入抑郁。记忆中愉快而顽皮的年少时代就这样一去不复返了吗？在严肃的成年世界里，如何拥有轻松生活的力量？
作为拥有多年临床经验的执业医师，高强度的工作压力和责任令作者不堪重负，即使生活方式依然健康，也无法扭转严肃、紧张的精神状态。他警觉必须找回失去的轻松心态，学习如何轻松地生活。
回想童年，正是性格中的顽皮特质，让我们把世界看作游乐园。作者由此出发，通过观察、采访并研究数千人，结合心理学、社会学、神经科学等一系列学科，确定了5种最重要的顽皮特质：想象力、社交能力、幽默、自发性和惊奇。
本书致力于探索以上5种顽皮特质的效果和益处，为我们分享了十几个真实动人的案例，逐一证明了每种顽皮特质拥有的力量，它将促使我们更为积极地处理人际关系，应对事业和生命困境，摆脱严肃的束缚，迎接更轻松愉悦的生活。