This highly acclaimed text, now available in paperback, provides a thorough account of key concepts and theoretical results, with particular emphasis on viewing statistical inference as a special case of decision theory. Information-theoretic concepts play a central role in the development of the theory, which provides, in particular, a detailed discussion of the problem of specification of so-called prior ignorance . The work is written from the authors s committed Bayesian perspective, but an overview of non-Bayesian theories is also provided, and each chapter contains a wide-ranging critical re-examination of controversial issues. The level of mathematics used is such that most material is accessible to readers with knowledge of advanced calculus. In particular, no knowledge of abstract measure theory is assumed, and the emphasis throughout is on statistical concepts rather than rigorous mathematics. The book will be an ideal source for all students and researchers in statistics, mathematics, decision analysis, economic and business studies, and all branches of science and engineering, who wish to further their understanding of Bayesian statistics

Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications. A detailed description of learning algorithms and Conditional Gaussian Distributions using Junction Tree methods. A discussion of Pearl's intervention calculus, with an introduction to the notion of see and do conditioning. All concepts are clearly defined and illustrated with examples and exercises. Solutions are provided online. This book will prove a valuable resource for postgraduate students of statistics, computer engineering, mathematics, data mining, artificial intelligence, and biology. Researchers and users of comparable modelling or statistical techniques such as neural networks will also find this book of interest.

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: * Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. * Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. * Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. * Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. * Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Our financial crisis: what happened, how we got here, and what needs to be done Henry Kaufman-an esteemed economist and statesman-is one of the most preeminent financial figures of the day, with a history of success from the 1980s, when his firm, Salomon Brothers, ruled the bond markets. In "The Road to Financial Reformation," Dr. Kaufman, who has spent a lifetime entrenched in the world of finance, provides an insightful account of the history and impact of post-World War II financial markets on the economy-what happened, how we got to where we are today, and what needs to be done. Drawing on his vast breadth of knowledge and experience, Kaufman reveals the mistakes that got us into this debacle, the consequences-as they have not been fully realized-and how to put our derailed economy back on track. This book details Dr. Kaufman's warnings and concerns expressed repeatedly throughout the last quarter century, and shows that what he predicted came to pass. Provides an insightful account of the history and impact of post-World War II financial markets on the economy Explores the erosion of credit ratings on corporate debt in the late 1980s and the rapid increase in financial concentration of institutions Discusses the blinding faith in models that rely on historical data but fail to take into account economic and financial market structural changes With his breadth of knowledge and experience, Kaufman details that this crisis was foreseeable (he saw it coming), and how we created this history-making financial crisis. He also explains the consequences still to come, and presents solutions on how we can recover and reform the markets.

The ultimate behind-the-scenes look at the hedge fund industry, The Alpha Masters: Unlocking the Genius of the World's Top Hedge Funds offers an unprecedented glimpse into the strategies and investment criteria serious money managers use to determine and evaluate their positions and maximize their hedge fund profits, in their own words. Author and CNBC hedge fund specialist Maneet Ahuja has unrivalled access to the masters of the market, and in this game-changing new book, she takes their stories public for the first time.
Bringing the secretive world of hedge funds out into the light of day, the book includes interviews with star fund managers:
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates
Pierre LaGrange and Tim Wong, Man Group / AHL
John Paulson, Paulson & Co.
Marc Lasry and Sonia Gardner, Avenue Capital Group
David Tepper, Appaloosa Management
William A. Ackman, Pershing Square Capital Management
Daniel Loeb, Third Point
James Chanos, Kynikos Associates
Boaz Weinstein, Saba Capital Management
Experts at outperforming the market, many of these industry luminaries have never talked as candidly about their experiences—and the lessons they've learned—as they do in these pages.
Ahuja's unparalleled insider access allows her to bring the remarkable stories of these eleven incredibly successful individuals vividly to life as no one else can. Accessible and insightful, The Alpha Masters gets to the very heart of what makes these men and women so profitable. Packed with unique insights into the psychology of the hedge fund trade that are sure to help readers replicate the successes of the managers profiled here for themselves, the book is a provocative analysis of today's investing landscape.
Essential reading for business and investment readers of all backgrounds, The Alpha Masters is a true tell-all about life in the innermost chambers of the world of hedge funds, from a reporter on the front lines.

This book deals with 10 trends shaping China and how it effects all of us. The Author makes a very good case to back up his statement that these trends are irreversible, which is a pretty bold statement.
Some of the trends discussed in this very current book (copyright '11) cover the rise of the new generation W (for web) where he provides startling stats such as a projected half a billion internet users in China this year. That's almost double the population of America! Other stats include: 600,000 middle class in China right now, 70% of China's drinking water is undrinkable, and, within the whole country, the agricultural land that is still unpolluted is only about the size of Texas and shrinking.
If you are anything of a Globally conscious person, or your business is in some way affected by China, you must read this book. It will not only be an eye opener to someone who currently does business in China, but will also provide valuable insight on how to forecast what to expect in the coming decade for your business. Even if your current business is not yet connected to this growing Global superpower, it will be.
Bill Dodson comes across as someone who has spent ample time doing business in China, studying the culture first hand, with obviously a keen eye on the fast ever changing society of capitalistic communists that are changing the way the world does business.

A journey behind the mask and into the mind of Gotham City's Caped Crusader, timed for the summer 2012 release of "The Dark Knight Rises". Batman is one of the most compelling and enduring characters to come from the Golden Age of Comics, and interest in his story has only increased through countless incarnations since his first appearance in "Detective Comics" numbered 27 in 1939. Why does this superhero without superpowers fascinate us? What does that fascination say about us? "Batman and Psychology" explores these and other intriguing questions about the masked vigilante, including: Does Batman have PTSD? Why does he fight crime? Why as a vigilante? Why the mask, the bat, and the underage partner? Why are his most intimate relationships with "bad girls" he ought to lock up? And why won't he kill that homicidal, green-haired clown? It gives you fresh insights into the complex inner world of Batman and Bruce Wayne and the life and characters of Gotham City. It explains psychological theory and concepts through the lens of one of the world's most popular comic book characters. It is written by a psychology professor and "Superherologist" (scholar of superheroes).

Are cyborgs our friends or our enemies? Was it morally right for Skynet to nuke us? Is John Connor free to choose to defend humanity, or not? Is Judgment Day inevitable? The Terminator series is one of the most popular sci-fi franchises ever created, captivating millions with its edgy depiction of the struggle of humankind for survival against its own creations. This book draws on some of history's philosophical heavy hitters: Descartes, Kant, Karl Marx, and many more. Nineteen leather-clad chapters target with extreme prejudice the mysteries surrounding intriguing philosophical issues raised by the Terminator series, including the morality of terminating other people for the sake of peace, whether we can really use time travel to protect our future resistance leaders in the past, and if Arnold's famous T-101 is a real person or not. You'll say "Hasta la vista, baby" to philosophical confusion as you develop a new appreciation for the complexities of John and Sarah Connor and the battles between Skynet and the human race.

This is the Gateway to the Profession. 99 per cent of surveyed practicing accountants feel that Kieso, Weygandt, and Warfield's "Intermediate Accounting" helped prepare them for success in professional practice. 100 per cent would recommend the text to someone currently studying for an accounting degree. 80 per cent said they referred to their copy when they first entered professional practice. Professionals who learned accounting from "Intermediate Accounting" find themselves well prepared to enter the workplace. So well prepared in fact, that many keep their copy of the text to refer to again and again. Why is this text so essential for professional success? Currency: this 12th edition of "Intermediate Accounting" reflects the state of the art in accounting today. The text is kept current with the "Intermediate Accounting Newsletter", a periodical for users of the text that spotlights the very latest developments and their implications. Real world examples and illustrations, as well as numerous examples from real corporations help you understand exactly how professionals apply accounting principles and techniques. International Insight notes compare accounting practices in other countries. This 12th edition features professional simulation problems, modeled on the new computerized exam. In addition, new accounting research exercises help you practice using the Financial Accounting Research Database System (FARS). It has comprehensive and clear explanations of concepts. The authors clear writing style and logical organization help you understand the material. Make Kieso your gateway to the profession!

《零极限:创造健康、平静与财富的夏威夷疗法》我爱你、对不起、请原谅、谢谢你——四句话能解决所有问题？
一位夏威夷治疗师不必见到病人，就神奇治愈精神病罪犯的故事将告诉你，一切就是这么简单！
本书介绍了一种用于疗愈的夏威夷古老心法，它提倡释放内心有害能量，让个人通过感恩与忏悔将耗费于记忆中的能量，转化为接收灵感的能量。通过恢复个体内在平衡，再恢复宇宙万物平衡。作者在介绍这种方法的同时，更加入许多同修的真实案例，生动解读夏威夷疗法在生活中的应用方法与独特疗效。
这本书让我们在一种纯粹的爱、包容与平静的状态下，聆听自己内心的声音，吸收灵感与力量，进而创造一种健康、平静与快乐的人生！
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Zero Limits: The Secret Hawaiian System for Wealth, Health, Peace, and More 在线阅读本书
Praise For Zero Limits
This riveting book can awaken humanity. It reveals the simple power of four phrases to transform your life. It′s all based in love by an author spreading love. You should get ten copies of it––––one for you and nine to give away. It′s that good."-––– Debbie Ford, New York Times bestselling author of The Dark Side of the Light Chasers
I love this book! I feel it will be the definitive personal–change/self–help book for at least a generation and viewed as a watershed event by historians. There is real potential for this book to start a movement that will end war, poverty, and the environmental devastation of our beloved planet."-––– Marc Gitterle, MD, www.CardioSecret.com
This book is like a stick of dynamite, and the moment you start reading, the fuse is lit.

It blows away all the complex and confusing success paradigms of the past and reveals a refreshing and clear path to transform your life with just one simple step. As you explore Zero Limits with Vitale, be prepared for a journey that is both challenging and inspiring beyond anything you′ve imagined."-––– Craig Perrine, www.MaverickMarketer.com
There are more than 6 billion different manifestations of human existence on the planet?and only one of us here. In Zero Limits, Vitale has captured the truth that all great spiritual, scientific, and psychological principles teach at the most fundamental level. Boil it all down to the basics and the keys are quite simple–––– the answer to all life′s challenges is profound love and gratitude. Read this book; it′s a reminder of the truth and ability you already possess."-––– James Arthur Ray, philosopher and bestselling author of Practical Spirituality and The Science of Success
Wow! This is the best and most important book Vitale has ever written!"-––– Cindy Cashman, www.FirstSpaceWedding.com
I couldn′t put it down. This book elegantly sketches what I′ve learned and learned about in twenty–one years of personal study, and then it takes it to the next level. If you′re looking for true peace along with ′the good stuff,′ then this book is for you."-––– David Garfinkel, author of Advertising Headlines That Make You Rich
Zero Limits is Vitale′s adventure into the most mind–altering reading experience of your life."-––– Joseph Sugarman, President, BluBlocker Sunglasses, Inc.
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零极限:创造健康、平静与财富的夏威夷疗法

Real people, real transformations!

"Absolutely amazing! It completely shifts your paradigm for life. One of the most wonderful things about it is that the results are immediate. My whole perception and relationship to money has undergone a major, substantial change."
-Chris Attwood, writer and teacher, California

"I've spent most of my life trying to figure out what's true and what's real. I have to say I now have a clear glimpse into what it really is."
-Tom Hill, Colorado

"Before Busting Loose from The Money Game, I was very unhappy and frustrated in my life. I was driven to find more ways to make money. I changed jobs, cities, countries, went back to school, read books. Financially, the stress was causing anxiety attacks and migraines so severe I stayed in bed. The joy I feel now is priceless. Money is there when I need it, in the amount that's needed, no matter what occurs (car repairs, unplanned trips, etc.). It's absolutely amazing!"
-Suresh Thakoor, Texas

"As a retired professor on a fixed and limited income, I always lived from a tight budget and felt compressed by it-especially at the end of the year. I don't use a budget anymore and have opened up new streams of income that were always closed to me in the past."
-Howard Rovics, Connecticut

"It opened a whole new dimension for me and shifted my perspective on life completely. I especially love how practical it is. The application is so simple, so effective . . . and fun!"
-Doris Kahle, Hagen, Germany

"I'd had a lot of success in the corporate arena, made a ridiculous amount of money and lost a ridiculous amount of money. But I was caught in a cycle of making it, losing it. I needed to break that cycle-for myself and my family-and this gave me the keys to do that. Busting Loose from The Money Game opened a window I had no clue even existed. This is very cutting-edge, a revolutionary approach to unwrapping yourself from limitations. If you're not satisfied with where you are financially and you're concerned about your future, get this book!"
-Ben Coleman, Texas

A front-line industry insider's look at the financial technology explosion
The FINTECH Book is your primary guide to the financial technology revolution, and the disruption, innovation and opportunity therein. Written by prominent thought leaders in the global fintech investment space, this book aggregates diverse industry expertise into a single informative volume to provide entrepreneurs, bankers and investors with the answers they need to capitalize on this lucrative market. Key industry developments are explained in detail, and critical insights from cutting-edge practitioners offer first-hand information and lessons learned.
The financial technology sector is booming, and entrepreneurs, bankers, consultants, investors and asset managers are scrambling for more information: Who are the key players? What's driving the explosive growth? What are the risks? This book collates insights, knowledge and guidance from industry experts to provide the answers to these questions and more.
Get up to speed on the latest industry developments
Grasp the market dynamics of the 'fintech revolution'
Realize the sector's potential and impact on related industries
Gain expert insight on investment and entrepreneurial opportunities
The fintech market captured over US$14 billion in 2014, a three-fold increase from the previous year. New startups are popping up at an increasing pace, and large banks and insurance companies are being pushed toward increasing digital operations in order to survive. The financial technology sector is booming and The FINTECH Book is the first crowd-sourced book on the subject globally, making it an invaluable source of information for anybody working in or interested in this space.

Money Games is a riveting tale of one of the most successful buyout deals ever: the acquisition and turnaround of what used to be Korea’s largest bank by the American firm Newbridge Capital.
Full of intrigue and suspense, this insider's account is told by the chief architect of the deal itself, the celebrated author and private equity investor Weijian Shan. With billions of dollars at stake, and the nation's economic future on the line, Newbridge Capital sought to become the first foreign firm in history to take control of one of Korea’s most beloved financial institutions.
In a proud country still reeling from a humiliating International Monetary Fund bailout in the Asian Financial Crisis, Newbridge Capital had to muster every ounce of skill, determination, and patience to bring the deal to closing.
Shan takes readers inside the battle to win control of the bank―a delicate, often exasperating process that meant balancing the goals of Newbridge with those of the government, bank employees, and Korea's powerful industrial titans.
Finally, the author describes how Newbridge transformed and rebuilt the struggling bank into a shining example of modern banking―as well as a massively profitable investment. In the secret world of private equity, few buyouts have been written about with such clarity, detail, and insight―and none with such completeness, covering not only the dealmaking but also the transformation and eventual exit of the investment.
For anyone who has ever wondered how private equity investors strike bargains, turn around businesses, and create immense value―or anyone interested in a captivating story of high-stakes money-making―this book is a must-read.

Written from the perspective of the applied mathematician, the latest edition of this bestselling book focuses on the theory and practical applications of Differential Equations to engineering and the sciences. Emphasis is placed on the methods of solution, analysis, and approximation. Use of technology, illustrations, and problem sets help readers develop an intuitive understanding of the material. Historical footnotes trace the development of the discipline and identify outstanding individual contributions. This book builds the foundation for anyone who needs to learn differential equations and then progress to more advanced studies.

Revolutionary techniques that traders can implement to improve profits and avoid lossesNo trader, professional or individual, can afford not to have a solid risk management program integrated into his or her trading system. But finding a precise mathematical model to replace subjective decision-making processes is a challenge. Traditionally, risk management has focused solely on loss avoidance, but in Trading Risk, hedge fund risk manager Kenneth Grant presents some-thing completely new--how to manage a portfolio to minimize risk and increase profits by putting more capital at risk. Trading Risk details a risk management program that can help both money managers and individual traders evaluate which elements in a portfolio are working efficiently and which aren't. By illustrating an extremely simple set of statistical and arithmetic tools this book can help readers enhance their performance in many financial markets.Kenneth L.Grant is Cheyne's Global Risk Manager, and is the Managing Member for Cheyne Capital, LLC, the firm's U.S. arm. Mr. Grant is a pioneer in the field of hedge fund risk management and capital allocation. Before joining Cheyne, he created risk control programs at two of the world's leading hedge funds, Tudor Investments and SAC Capital, where he was eventually promoted to the title of Chief Investment Strategist. Mr. Grant holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Mathematics from the University of Wisconsin, an MA in Economics from Columbia University, and an MBA from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business.
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交易风险管理:通过控制风险提高获利能力的技巧

Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.
Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:
What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns
Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.